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She ain't singing yet and five wins will do it

It was one of those weekends. A last minute goal basically meant we ended the day one place lower instead of one place higher and out of the relegation zone. And it does put more pressure on the next four games as I wrote yesterday and it does create real reason to be concerned. But Sherwood didn't win his first game as boss of Spurs and went on to a 59% win ratio.

And we can go over the reasons why we are in the mess we find ourselves in or the gamble the club took in appointing Tim Sherwood, but it's sort of pointless. All that matters now is we get nine points out of Newcastle, West Brom, Sunderland and Swansea, because after those four we've got Manchester United, Spurs, QPR and Manchester City and we really don't want to go into May needing to win the last four games.

And it might not be enough or we could finish close to mid-table. We simply don't know what the results of the other teams are going to be. But we do sort of have an idea of what we're going to need, by looking at the history books.

After 26 games last season the team third from bottom had 24 points and you needed 34 to stay up by the end of the season. The season before that it was 23 points and you needed 37, 21 and 37 the one before that. The season The Clowns were relegated (2010/11) the team third from bottom after 26 games was on 26 points and you would have needed 40 to stay up that season.

We could lose seven more games and I'd not be too worried

I think it's safe to say that to stay up this season 40 points would do it, but we might very well see a team survive on 36 or 37 points, but again, that depends on how the teams around us do. I guess you could say the QPR and Burnley games are very important for us.

But to get to 37 points (a place I'd still feel a little nervous at today), we need five wins or four wins and three draws (I'm not going to try and stretch to us not losing nine of our remaining twelve matches) and that is why I'm saying we need to win three of our next four. It's not that we have to, mathematically we could get away with winning our last five if we use the points requirement of 37, but to be over target with a period of the season remaining and not go into April and May thinking we're down, it's what needs to happen.

The worst thing that can happen to a team is that think they're down. Sure, they don't say that to the press, they say they still believe, but if we go into the last two months of the season needing to beat and draw two of Manchester United, Manchester City and Spurs then confidence will be low.

And you know what, twelve games is a lot of time. I'm actually surprised and I'll get called up on this, that we only had two shots on target against Stoke because even though Sherwood only had the week with the players, scoring goals was the main problem. You'd have thought he'd have done something to have more shots, so there was ultimately a greater chance of goals.

Back to winning ways hopefully

But, it was only a week and there was always going to be pressure and a lot can happen in twelve games and the match at Newcastle is a big one. If there is one other side in the Premier League suffering it's them and if we're to get ourselves out of this mess, we have to beat them. Lose to Newcastle and I think many will start thinking we're down and when that happens, it's often a slippery road. Looking at the bigger picture, Newcastle is a must win game.

But as the title of the post suggests, it ain't over yet. However, if all Premier League clubs were traded by supporters, if we lost against Newcastle, many would probably start selling and only the die hard would start buying what is getting sold or those thinking we could still turn it around. Me, I'd buy because I would think we could turn it around, but I'm not sure I'd be buying if we lost to West Brom. Beat them both and I'd start buying whatever I could, but that's just because the optimism factor would be high.

And now, I'm starting to write in riddles, but you know what, a game where you traded in Premier League clubs, isn't such a bad idea and there could even be prizes for the winners. There you go PaddyPower - go take that to the next level.