We all like Tim Sherwood and we all believe in his philosophy of how the game should be played, but we're now in the bottom three and there is a growing feeling that what we've got to do is just rip off the plaster and get it over and done with. Get Sherwood out and someone in that will keep us up.
But just because we're in the bottom three now doesn't mean we will be in the bottom three at the end of October. But and this is the question, if we were in the bottom three at the end of October, is that the time to get rid of Sherwood? I think it comes down to how many points we have, just as much as it comes down to position in the table.
As it stands today we've got four points from seven games and in October we've got Stoke, Chelsea and Swansea. If we lose to Stoke we could find ourselves bottom of the table but beating Stoke would mean we would leave the relegation zone, that's how close it is.. But we do have to win to get out. But it's now about one game.
By the end of October, if we win all three, we'd have thirteen points from 10 games. That's 1.3 points a game and if we get that this season, based on last seasons points, we'd finish 10th and I think everyone would be okay with that. But that means we have to win the next three.
What happens if we don't win the next three? What happens if we win one, draw one and lose one or what's the absolute minimum? As things stand right now, we're getting just over half a point a game and we all know that's relegation. So again, based on last season, we'd need to get 0.95 points per game to stay up (36 points and we'd finish 17th again).
Need to win two of the next three
But to get to that after ten games (over a quarter of the season), we'd need to win two of the next three games. If we win tow of the next three games we are on form to finish 17th again. Ask yourself this; is that good enough?
My view really hasn't changed on Sherwood and I don't think it will. I was surprised he got the job but I did think he'd be worth a crack this season, but for me it comes down to results and points. It's simple mathematics and right now to get to a place where form suggests we'll stay up he's got to win two of the next three.
By this time next month, he might have to win the next three or four in a row, just to believe it's possible. What we know is this; right now it's not good enough and as every game is played, there are less opportunities to make it work and the need for points increases, just to survive, let alone move forward.
The really worrying thing is this; I'm not sure the CEO and owner really know this, otherwise why would they let someone with so little experience bring in so many new players also with so little experience. But like I wrote when Sherwood was appointed, I could be wrong. One thing I'm not wrong about is the points. It all comes down to the points.