A little look to Newcastle, the one in four theory and prediction time

Have you read about my one in four theory? If you haven't, it basically suggests that under Alex McLeish we will one game out of every four and I first wrote about it four games ago and sure enough, we won one out of the four.

So, if just for a moment, we start to happily accept that this is the best we are going to get from this manager - happily because it seems we are stuck with him until Randy Lerner can find a new owner, of the next four matches, what are your predictions?


We have Newcastle (a), Manchester City (h), Wigan (a) and Blackburn (a) coming up and I thought, as I sometimes do, it would be fun to look at these and play a prediction game and after the Blackburn game, come back to it - see who was right, wrong and wildly optimistic or pessimistic.

I'll start off by saying that I think we will beat Blackburn but if we get to that game and we haven't won in the previous three, it could be too much for this manager and we might implode. I should also add that there is every chance he isn't in a job by the time we get to Blackburn and if that is the case, the game is off.

I should also say that just because he had a win rate of 36.9% at The Clowns and a 29.6% win rate with us - it could all change over these next four games and he could end up winning them all. The result against Newcastle is going to be interesting.

A look at Newcastle

We could beat Newcastle too, but the thing is, they have a manager that is going to send out his team to win and we have a manager that is going to send out his team to not lose. But and this why this result and performance is going to be interesting, the second half against QPR was the best half of football I have seen from Aston Villa all season and if they can take that and continue, you never know what will happen.

But, I'm not getting carried away with that as it is too easy. QPR fans will be unhappy that their team sat back and didn't go for more and they will think that it was just their team that didn't do what they were supposed to that allowed us in - but I like to think that the players in the shirt were a little shocked at what happened and stepped it up a gear.

We will never really know and all that really matters is the end result and we got a point against QPR and probably why we should consider ourselves lucky if we leave Newcastle with a point.

But, it could happen. Or, we could revert to what we all expect under McLeish and if that happens, we wont be leaving Newcastle with three points, unless we get lucky - we are just not a team that goes out and wins matches any more. Which is why, if we don't win on Sunday, Wigan away is the match we must win.

Odds and prediction time

So, with four matches coming up, what are we going to get? Maybe not surprisingly, my head and heart are very close; head says four points and heart says five. Neither is good enough, but like I said, it is the best we are going to get under this owner until he finds a buyer.

So, for my prediction, I'm going with my heart; a win at Blackburn and a draw tomorrow and against Wigan. I think Manchester City will beat us, but a part of me thinks we can take a point, but that part belongs in 1985. As an aside, my head says we will draw with Wigan and beat Blackburn.

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