Match post baby: Aston Villa at West Ham and season prediction
It's finally here. What seems like a very long break is very nearly over and this weekend, the seasons starts. Proper football is finally back. And we have a lot to look forward to and real reason to be excited.
I'm not going to use the word optimistic, because I think we've past that. We're basically in a really good place and have lots of reasons to look forward to the season ahead.
And it's something we've done before. By that I mean we played in Europe last season and we're doing it again, but is it just me or are some suggesting playing in Europe this season could impact our league form? I fail to see the difference.
Yes, the games will be bigger because the teams are bigger, but it's still a game. And we have a bigger squad to go into these bigger matches. And dare I say it, a better squad that last season. Or maybe stronger. And it all starts on Saturday in London!
But we can't get to the match facts from the BBC section or the West Ham match, before prediction time.
Season prediction
And this is one of the easiest predictions I'm going to make. And the reason why it's an easy one is for one reason, Unai Emery. I've long said the most important person at a Club is the manager. Yes, he needs a good owner or board and he needs good players, but the right manager wins you matches, makes players better and develops a Club.
I firmly believe we have the right manager and I think he's got more players this season of a quality that we need this season than he had last season, his first full season.
And after he took over, he managed to get us to seventh place. After that, the only thing I wanted was to do better than the season before and he did. He's making it harder for himself this season, but I don't think it's impossible. Liverpool have a new manager and while he's qualified for the job and has a very good record, it doesn't always translate to the Premier League in your first season.
I'm not saying they're going to be easy to get past and I suspect Arsenal and Manchester City to challenge for the title again, but I also think it's possible Manchester City are going to have a number of points taken off them this season or maybe find themselves relegated. But then we have the likes of Spurs, Chelsea and dare I say it Manchester United that are all capable of finishing in the top four.
So this season is going to be about winning more and losing less for us. The draws will take care of themselves. But we lost twice as many as Arsenal last season and both Arsenal and Manchester City won 8 games more than us. There is a huge opportunity for us this season and we are closer than the other sides, despite what others might have you believe.
So we can do better than last season and I'd not be surprised if we did. But today, right now, I'm predicting fourth place. That said if Liverpool don't start off the way they would have done under Klopp, things could change. And if Manchester City get punished in the same way Everton and Nottingham Forest did last season, the who knows what is possible.
But I'm not writing that and the hard part when finishing in the top four, much like the hard part in getting promoted is staying in the league, is staying in the top four. Just look at the likes of Spurs, Chelsea and Newcastle.
It's not impossible.
West Ham on Saturday
So, this ends with West Ham and the start of the Premier League season and they have a new manager too. So they will go into this season optimistic and full of confidence and they are at home. And there is nothing from last week for the manager to look at. This is new for them.
Saturday will be a tough game. And for this match, I'm not making a prediction. I'm merely hoping we win. If we win on Saturday, I'm going to be full of energy for the season and it's going to have me believing. I think that's me writing we should be optimistic. There, it's written.
Match facts from the BBC
West Ham have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League games against Aston Villa (W6 D5), a 4-1 loss at Villa Park last season.
Aston Villa are winless in their last nine Premier League away games against West Ham (D5 L4), since a 2-1 victory at Upton Park in April 2011.
West Ham have lost on five of the six occasions they’ve begun a Premier League campaign against a side who finished in the previous season’s top four. The only exception was a 2-0 away win at Arsenal in 2015-16.
West Ham have won their opening Premier League match in just one of the last eight seasons (D1 L6), beating Newcastle 4-2 in 2021-22. Indeed, the Hammers have lost their opening game in the Premier League more often than any other side (15).
Aston Villa have lost their opening Premier League match in each of the last three seasons, conceding 10 goals in these games. They also lost the last time they faced West Ham in their first game, going down 1-0 at Upton Park in 2012-13.
West Ham have conceded at least once in each of their last 18 Premier League games – only once have they had a longer run without a clean sheet in the competition, going 24 games between March and November 2008.
Aston Villa failed to win any of their last four Premier League games in 2023-24 (D2 L2), their longest run without a win under Unai Emery. Indeed, the Spaniard last had a longer run without a league win between May and September 2021 with Villarreal (D4 L1).
This will be Julen Lopetegui’s first game in charge of West Ham. He won his first Premier League game in charge of Wolves (2-1 v Everton), while his last victory in the competition was a home game against Aston Villa (1-0 in May 2023).
West Ham’s new signing Crysencio Summerville was involved in 28 Championship goals last season for Leeds United (19 goals, 9 assists excluding play-offs). Only Southampton’s Adam Armstrong (34) and Blackburn’s Sammie Szmodics (31) were involved in more.
Ollie Watkins is Aston Villa’s highest ever Premier League goalscorer in games played in London, with 13 goals in the capital so far. He has 59 overall in the competition, behind only Gabriel Abgonlahor (74) and Dwight Yorke (60) for the Villans.
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