Leeds at Villa Park, match facts and the season is getting interesting

It feels like it was such a long time since we played, but it was the FA Cup that makes me feel that way. And it wasn't a nice result against Newcastle and quite a surprising performance, but I've written about that, so we move in.

It's Leeds at Villa Park tomorrow and it's a big match.

It's big because we are three points behind Manchester City and if Arsenal bottle it again this season and we can stay close to Manchester City, we might just get quite close to Arsenal too.

Not that I think Arsenal will bottle it, but it does feel a little like that is written already. And if they don't get three points against Spurs at the weekend and Manchester City do, it's going to have many continuing that narrative.

And there is a need to not allow the other side from Manchester catch up with us and while some might believe that the bounce they have had with Carrick has bounced and they're going to default to what Manchester United have become, I'm hoping that he wins a few more and gets offered a contract and spends money in the summer.

And if that happens, we need to be picking up all the points we can and it feels like we've dropped a few recently when we shouldn't have, so three points tomorrow is important, for many reasons. Mostly, it's about getting the players on the page that this is real.

I'll be back tomorrow and tomorrow is all about three points. It's starting to feel very real and we don't want to do an Arsenal. 

Match facts from the BBC

• Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last six Premier League games against Leeds (W4 D2) and are looking to complete the double over them for the second time in the competition after 1999-00.

• Leeds have lost their last two Premier League games against Aston Villa, last losing three in a row between January and December 2000.

• Aston Villa are unbeaten in all 18 of their Premier League games against promoted sides under Unai Emery (W14 D4).

• Since the start of December, only Manchester City and Manchester United (1 each) have lost fewer Premier League games than Leeds United (2), although the Whites have the most draws in that timeframe too (7).

• Leeds have won just one of their last 18 Premier League away games (D5 L12), beating Wolves 3-1 in September. Though they’re winless in their last 10 on the road, five of the last six have finished level, with the Whites coming from 2-0 down to draw at Chelsea last time out.

• There has been just seven goals scored in Aston Villa’s last six Premier League games (4 for, 3 against), an average of just 1.2 per game. In their previous six games, more than treble the number of goals were scored in Villa’s games (23 – 3.8 per game).

• Since December, Leeds United rank first for long throws into the box (62), shots following long throws into the box (20) and xG from shots after long throws into the box (3.03). Captain Ethan Ampadu has also made the most long throws into the box in that time (55).

• Aston Villa have 50 points in 26 Premier League matches this season (W15 D5 L6) – it’s the third time they’ve reached 50 points in as few games, after 2008-09 (51 in 25 games) and 2023-24 (52 in 26 games).

• Lukas Nmecha has been involved in three goals in his last two Premier League appearances (2 goals, 1 assist) and is averaging a goal every 115 minutes this season – the best of any Leeds United player in Premier League history to play 500+ minutes for the club.

• Morgan Rogers scored both goals in Aston Villa’s 2-1 win over Leeds in November – he leads all Villa players in the Premier League this season for chances created (33), big chances created (10), assists (5), take-ons (101), touches in the opposition box (131) and has the joint most goals (8).